The growth outlook is looking increasingly shaky. Yet, with inflation going through the roof, the Central banks remains on course for additional tightening measures. The Ukraine war and the standoff with Russia meanwhile remains a serious risk for the whole of Europe. Meanwhile the global industrial sector could benefit once China’s Covid restrictions are lifted and supply chains normalize. In the middle of these, the UK is reviving the Brexit debate by promoting legislation that would unilaterally rewrite the Norther Ireland Protocol, which is a key part of the Brexit agreement with the EU. The move would risk an all out trade war with the UK’s nearest – and much larger – neighbor, and make the stagflation scenario even worse. The week ahead is expected to be another massive one, as Central Bankers speeches, FOMC minutes, US durables, revised GDP will dominate along with Retail Sales readings from Canada and Australia.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 23 May 2022
IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German IFO business Climate is forecasted to decline to 91.4 in May from 91.8.
BOE Gov Bailey Speech (GBP, GMT 16:15)
FOMC Member George Speech (USD, GMT 23:00)
Tuesday – 24 May 2022
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The Eurozone’s & Germany’s Markit Composite March PMIs are expected to have declined closer to contraction, given a fall in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, leaving the composite at 55 and from 55.8 for the Eurozone.
Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for May is expected to rise by 59.5 from 59.20 while Services PMI is expected to fall to 55.1 from 55.6.
Wednesday – 25 May 2022
Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The RBNZ is expected to hike cash rate by another 50 points to counter soaring inflation making a hike of that magnitude for the first time at successive meetings, a Reuters poll found.
BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech (JPY, GMT N/A)
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.5% in April with a 0.0% growth on transportation orders, after a 1.4% headline increase in March.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC is still on course for half point rate hikes at coming meetings. KC Fed’s George said it has been a “rough week” for the markets but added that is part of the policy transmission mechanism. Also, Powell and the rest of the Committee have stressed demand will have to be reduced to get a handle on inflation. The futures show an implied rate around 1.975% at the end of Q3 and 2.665% at the end of the year, though not as high as the 2.80% December rate previously.
Thursday – 26 May 2022
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Final Canadian sales for March should held steady at 0.1% m/m and ex-Autos at 2.1% m/m.
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect a US Q1 GDP growth trimming to -1.5% from -1.4%. We expect boosts of $12 bln for imports, $2 bln boost for exports, $8 bln for factory inventories and $1 bln for equipment spending, and a -$4 bln downward revision for nonresidential construction. The revisions still leave a quarter with robust fixed investment growth and solid consumption growth, but with a big deterioration in the trade balance, a decline in government purchases, and moderation in the pace of inventory accumulation.
Friday – 27 May 2022
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Final Australian sales for April should fall to 1% m/m from 1.6% m/m.
Core PCE Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) –US personal income rose 0.5% and spending climbed 1.1% in March after respective gains of 0.7% (was 0.5%) and 0.6% (was 0.2%). January income rose 0.2% (was 0.1%) and spending bounced 2.0% (was 2.7%). PCE deflators, the FOMC’s favorite, posted a steep 0.9% headline gain versus 0.5% previously.
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