Stagflation risks are building. Central banks clearly are spooked by the persistent rise in inflation that is increasingly evident in domestic indicators of price pressures. Officials are now racing to scale back the stimulus implemented during the crisis, despite the downside risks to the growth outlook. The surprisingly robust inflation data that forced tightening may not abate much over the foreseeable future. Fedspeak is heavy and could be hot next week. Data however will also dominate volatility as the week includes leading indicators such as PMIs, CPI and Retail Sales from the largest economies in the world.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 20 June 2022
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – On May, the PBoC unexpectedly cut the 5-year LPR which boosted investor confidence in the global recovery which gave life to global equities. According to Reuters survey China is expected to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at its monthly fixing on Monday, as global central bank tightening limited room for policy manoeuvre to arrest economic slowdown.
United States – Juneteenth Holiday
ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 13:00)
FOMC Member Bullard Speech (USD, GMT 16:45)
Tuesday – 21 June 2022
RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00)
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes should provide further guidance. RBA’s latest meeting left many to expect 50 bp hikes in July as well as September.
BoE MPC Member Pill speech (GBP, GMT 07:15)
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s April Retail Sales are expected to show a rise to 1.4% m/m, with core declining at 2% from 2.4% last month.
Wednesday – 22 June 2022
Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK inflation hit 40-year highs at 9.0% in April. The BoE now expects inflation to “rise slightly above 11% in October”, partly reflecting higher energy prices “following a prospective additional large increase in the Ofgem (Great Britain’s energy regulator) price cap”. The government’s aid package is also expected to lift inflation. For May, UK CPI is expected at 9.8% y/y, with core at 6.7% from 6.2%.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – BoC’s CPI rose to a 5.9% (y/y, nsa) pace in April from the 5.7% growth rate in March. Annual inflation rose to 6.8% last month, up from 6.7% in February. That’s the highest since January 1991 and exceeds the median estimate of 6.7% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Higher inflation expected to persist with May headline at 7.5% y/y.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Day 1 (USD, GMT 13:30)
Thursday – 23 June 2022
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The preliminary Eurozone’s Composite June PMI is expected to have declined, given a fall in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, leaving the composite at 54 from 54.8.
Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The preliminary June’s Services PMIs and Manufacturing PMIs in the UK are expected unchanged at 51.8 and 54.6 respectively.
Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to rise to 57.3 from 57.0 while Services PMI is expected to steady at 53.5.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Day 2 (USD, GMT 14:00)
Friday – 24 June 2022
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK’s May Retail Sales are expected to show a contraction to -7.2% y/y, with core declining at -8.4% y/y.
IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German IFO business reading is expected to decline slightly to 92.7 in June from 93.0.
RBA Governor Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 11:30)
FOMC Member Bullard Speech (USD, GMT 11:30)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment & New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Michigan sentiment is anticipated steady at 50.2 in the June print, a new all-time record low, after dropping -6.8 points to 58.4 in May. New Home sales are anticipated to rebound at 10.0% in May to a pace of 650k from 591k in April, versus a 9-month high of 839k in December.
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