Even if the Central Banks chaos is out of the way for now, there is a heavy calendar of Central Banks speeches ahead. So far the market continues to worry about the stability of the financial system and question growth and demand outlooks as central banks remain focused on fighting inflation. Friday is the most focal day of the week with the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation, i.e. PCE.
Monday – 27 March 2023
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip slightly to 90.5 in March after the 91.1.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)
Tuesday – 28 March 2023
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The February Retail Sales is anticipated to show a slight growth at 0.4% q/q, well below the past reading at 1.9% q/q in January.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 08:45)
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence in March is expected to ease to 105.0 from 102.9. US consumer confidence stumbled to 102.9 in February, much weaker than expected. It is down -3.1 points from the revised 106.0 (was 107.1) in January. This is the lowest since November and was at 105.7 a year ago.
Wednesday – 29 March 2023
Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian inflation data in February is expected to confiormed at 7.4% y/y.
Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Pending home sales expected grow by 1.0% in February after bounced 8.1% in January after a 1.1% increase in December.
Crude Oil Inventories & Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
Thursday – 30 March 2023
BOE Inflation Letter (GBP, GMT N/A)
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to rise at 7.3% y/y from 8.7% y/y.
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final Q4 GDP growth should show a growth boost to 2.8% from 2.7%, with hikes of $12 bln for nonresidential construction, $4 bln for consumption, and $1 bln for public construction, but trimmings of -$6 bln for business inventories, -$5 bln for net exports and -$1 bln for residential investment. The revised data will still depict a quarter with a hefty inventory build, despite a big further import decline, leaving little room for inventories to add to growth in 2023. We saw moderate consumption growth and a deterioration in all the fixed investment components, including a huge residential investment hit from the spike in mortgage rates to a 21-year high in October.
Governor Board Member Maechler Speech (CHF, GMT 16:00)
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Speech (USD, GMT 19:45)
Friday – 31 March 2023
Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 50.5 in March from 52.6.
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The economy is still expected to contract -0.4% in the first quarter, before stabilizing and starting to rise in the second half of the year, with overall GDP now expected to expand 0.2% in 2023. The BOE minutes showed that bank staff expects GDP to increase slightly in the second quarter, compared with the -0.4% decline anticipated in February.
Consumer Price Index & Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The Eurozone unemployment rate in February be unchanged at 6.7% m/m, while the preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to rise at 7.2% y/y from 8.5% y/y.
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down to contraction, at a monthly rate of -0.1%.
Core PCE Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – February personal income forecasted at 0.3% rise after a 0.6% January gain. Consumers are no longer spending more than they earn, as “stimulus funds” apparently ran dry around mid-2022. The rate is still well below the 8.7% pre-pandemic level in Q4 of 2019.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The final Michigan sentiment report is expected to reveal no revision in the initial March headline drop to 63.4 from a 13-month high of 67.0. The confidence surveys overall have shown an updraft from troughs in mid-2022, though all of the measures have deteriorated sharply from mid-2021 peaks. Michigan sentiment and the IBD/TIPP are fluctuating around historically weak levels, while the Conference Board measure has remained resilient. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, ongoing recession fears, and now bank failures.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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