A new poll released on Inauguration Day reveals some of the most popular, as well as the least liked aspects, of President-elect Trump’s agenda.
The survey conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research provides insight into the stances among U.S. adults on mass deportations, tariffs, potential pardons for Jan. 6 rioters and increased drilling of U.S. oil and gas, among other proposals brought by the soon-to-be 47th president on the 2024 campaign trail. The poll found that a sizable share of Americans hold a neutral view on parts of Trump’s agenda, signaling that public opinion could easily shift in coming weeks.
The poll of 1,147 adults was conducted Jan. 9 through 13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Mass deportations
Among his campaign promises, Trump has vowed to launch the largest deportation program in U.S. history. According to the AP-NORC poll, targeted deportations of immigrants who have been convicted of a crime would be popular among U.S. adults, even if they involved immigrants who are in the country legally.
The poll found that about eight in 10 U.S. adults favor deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally who have been convicted of a violent crime – including about two-thirds who are strongly in favor – and about seven in 10 support deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. legally who have been convicted of a violent crime. Yet, only four in 10 of U.S. adults are in support of deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally and have not been convicted of a crime, according to the survey.
Tariffs
Trump has also proposed sweeping tariffs on foreign goods imported into the United States, and the transition team reportedly has been working on a gradual roll-out plan aimed at off-setting the potential of inflation rising as a result.
Almost half of U.S. adults ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ oppose imposing a tariff, also referred to as an import tax, on all goods brought into the U.S. from other countries, according to the AP-NORC poll.
The poll found that about three in 10 are in favor, and about one-quarter are neutral, saying they neither favor nor oppose this policy. The AP assesses that opinion could move in either direction if the tariffs are implemented.
Republicans are much likelier than Democrats and independents to support broad tariffs, but about four in 10 are either opposed or unsure. Just over half of Republicans favor imposing a tariff on all goods brought into the U.S.
Jan. 6 pardons
Trump indicated on the campaign trail that he would likely issue pardons for many of the more than 1,500 people charged in connection to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
The AP-NORC poll found that about two in 10 U.S. adults ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ favor pardoning most people who participated in the Capitol riot.
Meanwhile, about six in 10 ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ oppose the proposal, including half who are strongly opposed, and about two in 10 are neutral.
As for members of Trump’s party, the poll found that about four in 10 Republicans favor pardoning many of the Jan. 6 participants, while about three in 10 are neutral, and about three in 10 are opposed.
‘Drill Baby Drill’
Trump has vowed to establish American ‘energy dominance,’ often repeating the chant, ‘Drill, baby, dill’ at rallies while touting his plan to bring down energy costs by increasing U.S. oil and gas drilling, including on federal lands.
But the AP-NORC poll found the majority of U.S. adults are split on the issue. About one-third of Americans ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ favor increasing oil drilling on federal lands, while about 4 in 10 are opposed.
The rest – about one-quarter – are neutral, saying they neither favor nor oppose increasing oil drilling on federal lands.
Republicans broadly favor increasing oil drilling, but the proposal is not popular among Democrats or independents, according to the poll.
Paris Climate Accords
Trump has indicated that he would pull out of the Paris climate agreement a second time once he takes office.
According to the AP-NORC poll, about half of Americans ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ oppose withdrawing from the agreement.
Only about two in 10 U.S. adults are ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ in favor of pulling out of the deal aimed at reducing carbon emissions, while about one-quarter are neutral.
The AP assesses that most of the opposition comes from Democrats, but Republicans show some uncertainty as well. Slightly less than half of Republicans are in favor, while about three in 10 are opposed.
Title IX
A federal judge in Kentucky recently rejected the Biden administration’s attempt to redefine sex in Title IX as ‘gender identity,’ blocking the change nationwide.
The AP-NORC poll categorized Biden’s Title IX rewrite as promoting discrimination ‘protections’ for transgender or LGBTQ+ students, but the Trump campaign has highlighted stories from women and girl athletes who have spoken out about losing scholarship opportunities and feeling uncomfortable and unsafe when forced to compete against, or change in locker rooms with, biological males identifying as female.
The survey found opposition is higher than support ‘for eliminating protections for transgender students’ under Title IX, the federal law that prohibits any high school or college that receives federal funds from discriminating on the basis of gender.
Almost half of U.S. adults ‘somewhat’ or ‘strongly’ oppose getting rid of these protections, while about three in 10 are in favor, and the rest are neutral, according to the survey.
Eliminating the debt ceiling
Trump pressured lawmakers to raise or eliminate the national debt ceiling at the end of last year as Congress scrambled to reach a spending deal that averted a government shutdown.
The poll found that about half of U.S. adults oppose eliminating the debt ceiling, while about one-quarter are in favor, and about three in 10 are neutral, signaling there could be room for public opinion to shift.
Democrats are only slightly more likely than Republicans to oppose getting rid of the debt ceiling, according to the survey.
Trump has also pushed for tax cuts for Americans, and notably coined the campaign slogan ‘No tax on tips.’ The poll found that just over half of U.S. adults favor eliminating taxes on earnings from tips.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.