Dogecoin price wavered this week as the recent crypto momentum waned. DOGE, the top meme coin, was trading at $0.1757 on Wednesday, a few points below the week’s high of $0.1926. This article explores how high the DOGE price may surge of the SEC approves spot ETFs and the risks to note.
Dogecoin price technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the DOGE price bottomed at $0.1292 earlier this month and then rebounded to a high of $0.1925. This rebound happened as Bitcoin and other altcoins rallied after Trump softened his stance against China, and after he said that he was not considering firing Jerome Powell.
Dogecoin also bounced back after forming a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. A wedge is a popular bullish reversal sign in technical analysis as it signals that the selling pressure is fading.
The coin has found substantial resistance at $0.1925, which coincided with the 50-day moving average. This moving average has acted a strong resistance several times in the past.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all moved downwards, a sign that the coin has lost momentum. This implies that the DOGE price has a neutral outlook today, and it may either rally or resume its downtrend.
The Dogecoin price action will depend on key levels. A clear break above the key resistance at $0.2050, the highest swing in April, will confirm a bullish breakout and lead to more gains. On the other hand, a drop below the year-to-date low at $0.1292 will invalidate the bullish outlook and lead to a collapse to $0.10.
How high can Dogecoin rise if the SEC approves a DOGE ETF?
A Dogecoin ETF approval would push the price much higher to $0.4336, the highest level reached on January 18, which is approximately 145% above the current level.
However, there is a caveat to this. First, the rally would happen immediately after the ETF is approved. And analysts believe that this will happen soo, as Polymarket odds of this have jumped to over 57%.
Odds of a DOGE ETF approval are high because it is a proof-of-work network like Bitcoin and is not a security.
The risk, however, is that Dogecoin funds will not have substantial inflows from investors. Publicly available data shows that investors are only interested in Bitcoin ETFs. These funds have already attracted over $38 billion in inflows, while Ethereum funds have received less than $2.5 billion.
Another factor is that the Dogecoin price will depend on the performance of Bitcoin. Historically, DOGE and other altcoins thrive only when Bitcoin is in a strong rally. Indeed, the ongoing recovery is underway, as BTC has jumped to $95,000 from its recent low of $74,000.
The other catalyst that will help to drive the value of DOGE after the ETF approval will be the performance of the stock market. Crypto and stocks have a close correlation with each other over time.
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