China has not purchased any US soybeans at the start of the new export season, marking the first time since at least 1999 that no orders were booked in September.
The absence of trade signals that Beijing is once again using agriculture as a bargaining tool in negotiations with Washington.
Soybeans are central to China’s food security, yet despite being the world’s largest buyer, it has chosen to delay purchases.
The move comes as President Xi Jinping prepares for talks with President Donald Trump amid disputes over semiconductors and rare earths, while US farmers brace for financial strain.
US soybean exports face sharp decline
Data from the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that as of 11 September, China had not booked a single cargo of soybeans, despite the marketing season beginning nearly two weeks earlier.
Records dating back to 1999 show this is the first occurrence of zero purchases at the season’s start.
In 2023, China imported around one-fifth of its soybeans from the US, worth more than $12 billion. That figure represented more than half of all US soybean export value.
Currently, soybeans shipped from the US into China face tariffs of over 20%.
These duties remain from the previous trade war under Trump, when China held back on US agriculture buying to apply pressure.
According to a Bloomberg report, US farmers, who are key to Trump’s voter base, are now coping with prices at some of the lowest levels in years.
With bumper harvests pushing supply higher, soybean growers have warned of severe financial risks and urged Washington to secure an agreement with Beijing that would remove tariffs.
China relies on Brazil for stable supply
China has been diversifying its supply routes. Major crushers, pig farmers, and feed producers have secured imports from Brazil, which has grown into the top supplier after trade tensions disrupted US flows in earlier years.
Some Chinese buyers have doubled their inventories, and the government holds significant reserves that act as a buffer against market disruption.
Soybeans are crushed mainly to produce soymeal for China’s vast pig industry and soyoil for cooking.
With sufficient inventories in place, Chinese buyers are under no immediate pressure to import US beans.
The Bloomberg report indicated that cargoes already booked will meet domestic demand until the first quarter of 2026.
Commodities tied to wider trade disputes
China’s move mirrors strategies it has used in other commodity markets, such as rare earths, which also became bargaining tools in negotiations with the US.
By withholding purchases, Beijing demonstrates it has the ability to wait and leverage its import demand strategically.
In the lead-up to talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, China announced that a preliminary investigation had found Nvidia in violation of anti-monopoly rules.
This action highlights how trade disputes are broadening beyond agriculture into technology and resources.
The renewed stand-off arrives as both countries navigate tariffs, export restrictions, and rules targeting semiconductors.
With agriculture once again tied into the wider conflict, US soy farmers remain vulnerable to decisions made far beyond their fields.
US farmers under pressure
The prolonged uncertainty leaves US farmers exposed to weak prices and reduced demand.
The industry has described the situation as a “trade and financial precipice,” pressing the government to find ways to restore access to the Chinese market.
While US producers face financial risk, Chinese markets appear calm. Diversified supplies and healthy stockpiles have given Beijing confidence to delay American purchases.
The timing underscores how commodities remain a critical tool in broader trade negotiations, as both sides weigh economic leverage in their ongoing disputes.
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