President-elect Trump got the attention of Panama and the entire international community when he said this week that the United States would demand that Panamanian officials return control of the Panama Canal to the United States if Panama does not halt the ‘rip-off’ of the United States.
Trump made the case that the United States built it, paid for it and that President Jimmy Carter ‘foolishly gave it away.’
President José Raúl Mulino shot back that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama. Trump noted that ‘it was given to Panama and to the people of Panama, but it has provisions. You got to treat us fairly and they haven’t treated us fairly.’
Make no mistake what Trump is doing is negotiating a new treaty for the Panama Canal and hence, a better deal for the American people. This is much akin to the playbook executed by President Teddy Roosevelt, who maneuvered a complex situation involving the French, the government of Colombia, and the Panamanian people to build the Panama Canal.
The Panama Canal is vital to free commerce and the national security interests of the United States. Approximately 73% of all ships coming through the Panama Canal are heading to or coming from U.S. ports.
It is also vital for international supply chains and global maritime trade itself. It played a huge role in the shipping of goods needed by allied forces during World War II, and thousands of U.S. troops were stationed there to guarantee its security.
Most concerning now is the growing influence of Communist China in Central and South America. In 2017, under the administration of former Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela, Panama switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Communist China. The then Trump administration went into action and, following a visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in October of 2018, the Varela government canceled five infrastructure projects with Chinese companies.
Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves, recently pointed out that there are concerns that ‘China might embed surveillance technology within the Canal’s infrastructure, which could be used to monitor U.S. naval and commercial movements.’ He further notes that this potential for espionage increases strategic risks and could provide China with key insights into U.S. logistics and military operations.
This certainly helps explain why the commander of U.S. Southern Command, Gen. Laura Richardson, told the House Armed Services Committee earlier this year that ‘China is exercising our playbook of being present economically and equipping the United States’ hemispheric neighbors militarily.’ From a timing standpoint, the new president of Panama, who took office earlier this year, is seen as being more aligned with Trump philosophically, and thus, much better to negotiate with.
It is important to understand the history of the Panama Canal treaty. President Carter negotiated giving full control of the canal in 1977 to Gen. Omar Torrijos, the military leader of Panama who took power in a coup d’état. He was also an ally of Manuel Noriega’s.
The giveaway of the Panama Canal was hugely unpopular in the United States and was one of the reasons why Ronald Reagan was able to close the gap in his 1976 GOP presidential challenge to President Gerald Ford. As Reagan was preparing for his subsequent and successful run for the presidency in 1980, he addressed this issue in a speech at Western Kentucky University.
There he blasted the Carter administration for moving forward with the transfer of the canal to ‘a man (Omar Torrijos) who’s there, not because he had the most votes, but because he had the most guns.’ Reagan went on to say internationally that the world would not see the giveaway of the canal ‘as a magnanimous gesture on our part…’ but as ‘once again America backing away and retreating in the face of trouble.’
One thing that many observers are overlooking is that many legal scholars agree that a United States president has the power to rescind or terminate a treaty. For example, President George W. Bush unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.
Likewise, President William MicKinley terminated certain articles in a commercial treaty with Switzerland, and President Calvin Coolidge withdrew the United States from a convention to prevent smuggling with Mexico.
And during World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt unilaterally terminated a number of treaties. Look for Trump to use this threat to negotiate a treaty, or at least extract concessions, from the Panamanian government.
Trump has inherited the most complex foreign policy landscape a commander in chief has ever faced. Whether it is the growing threat of Communist China, the thought of Iran with nuclear weapons, turmoil in the Middle East, or the Russian-Ukraine situation, Trump is facing constant national security challenges on the world stage.
Yes, it is an international chess game and, thus far, America’s incoming commander in chief is playing it like the late World Chess champion Bobby Fischer.