President Donald Trump’s re-entrance into the White House has meant the complete overturning of Biden administration policies, the withdrawal of major international agreements and uncertainty that has left international partners waiting to see where they stand in the pecking order as some manage damage control while others vie for a seat at the table.
Trump’s actions came as no surprise this time around as the 47th president enters his second term. But what it means in terms of geopolitics remains unclear as adversaries and allies alike watch to see how these next four years will play out.
WHO’S IN
Trump met with Meloni, leader of the conservative Brothers of Italy party, at his Mar-a-Lago residence earlier this month. The Italian leader, who has already voiced her support for Trump’s position on international issues like increasing NATO defense spending, attended Trump’s inauguration on Monday. According to reports this week, she has been deemed the ‘Trump whisperer’ and the ‘preferred interlocutor in the EU’ – a particularly important relationship amid concern that Trump could start a trade war with Europe.
A long-time ally of Trump, Orban championed his return to the Oval Office this month and reportedly declared that with Trump in office he could launch the ‘second phase of the offensive that aims to occupy Brussels,’ which he claimed is ‘occupied by a left-liberal oligarchy.’ Orban, though invited, did not attend the inauguration due to a scheduling conflict.
Once hailed by Trump as the leader to ‘make Argentina great again,’ Milei is looking to expand relations with the U.S. On Wednesday during the Davos World Economic Forum, he told Bloomberg he may be willing to leave the more than 30-year-old Mercosur trade bloc founded by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in 1991, if it means securing a new trade deal with the U.S.
India is also scrambling to secure a trade deal with the U.S. amid concerns over international tariffs. Despite improved ties between India and China, and a meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia last year, Reuters reported on Wednesday that Modi is looking to back off its reliance on Beijing – its largest trading partner – and instead lean in on relations with Washington. Modi is looking to meet with Trump in February.
Trump and Netanyahu maintained a strong relationship during the president’s first term, and a similar dynamic is expected to remain during Trump’s second term. Netanyahu on Monday released a video message congratulating Trump on his inauguration and said that ‘the best days of our alliance are yet to come.’ He also thanked Trump for the role his administration played in helping to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which initiated the return of the hostages still held in Gaza.
WHO’S TOEING THE LINE
The U.S.-U.K. partnership has often been described as a ‘special relationship,’ and London has long been one of Washington’s closest allies. But the ties between the U.S. and U.K. will be tested as Trump faces Labour leader Keir Starmer, who has previously been critical of Trump.
Starmer, in 2023, condemned the U.K.’s Conservative party for ‘behave[ing] more and more like Donald Trump’ rather than embodying the values championed by Winston Churchill.
‘They look at the politics of America and want to bring that here,’ he said. ‘Is there anybody in the government now who feels a sense of obligation to anything other than their own self-interest? To democracy, the rule of law, serving our country?’
‘It’s all woke, woke, woke. Wedge, wedge, wedge. Divide, divide, divide,’ he added.
Starmer has since pledged to work with Trump and to ensure the ‘special relationship’ endures, though he is expected to face a tough road.
The leader of the U.S.’s oldest ally is the only remaining European leader on the United Nations Security Council who was in office alongside Trump during his first term. Trump and Macron often butted heads during Trump’s first term and, despite an invitation to the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in December, reports indicate this time will likely be no different.
While Macron was among the first to congratulate Trump on his second presidential victory, he also issued multiple statements of warning this week, first when he said that now is the time for a ‘European strategic wake-up call,’ emphasizing the need to lessen reliance on the U.S. for defense.
The second warning came on Wednesday when it said ‘it is necessary more than ever for Europeans . . . to play their role of consolidating a united, strong and sovereign Europe’ as it stares down stiff tariffs vowed by Trump.
Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel, often went head-to-head with Trump and reportedly believed that the U.S. president specifically had it out for Germany during his first term. Scholz, who leads the left-leaning Social Democrats, appears to be following in a similar no-nonsense approach when it comes to the second Trump administration and on Wednesday made it clear that Trump ‘will be, and so much is already clear, a challenge.’
Speaking alongside Macron on Wednesday, Scholz pledged to stand united with his European allies and said, ‘Our position is clear. Europe is a big economic power with around 450 million citizens. We are strong, we stand together. Europe will not duck and hide but will be a constructive and self-confident partner.’
Trump has made clear that the EU is in his crosshairs, telling reporters this week, ‘The European Union is very, very bad to us.’ But President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen made clear this week she is ready to work with the new U.S. president.
‘No other economies in the world are as integrated as we are,’ she said, noting that the trade volumes between the U.S. and Europe account for 30% of all trade globally, reported Reuters. ‘Our first priority will be to engage early, discuss common interests and be ready to negotiate.’
She made clear that the EU will not be bullied by Trump and said, ‘We will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles. To protect our interests and uphold our values – that is the European way.’
EU feelings toward Trump appear fairly divided as the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has backed Trump’s push to increase defense spending across the board in Europe. Right-wing Danish member of the European Parliament Anders Vistisen addressed Trump’s stated desire to acquire Greenland and in a public message did not mince words.
‘Dear President Trump, listen very carefully: Greenland has been part of the Danish kingdom for 800 years. It is an integrated part of our country. It is not for sale,’ Vistisen said. ‘Let me put it in words you might understand. Mr. Trump, f*** off!’
Following a series of dramatic reports and resignations relating to Trudeau’s handling of Trump after he was newly elected and claimed that Canada should be the U.S.’s 51st state, Trudeau resigned from the top job this month.
It remains unclear who will replace Trudeau in a March 9 election, within his Liberal Party ahead of the general election later this year, where the party is expected to lose to the country’s Conservatives.
Trudeau has said, ‘There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,’ and government officials across the board are bracing for a trade war with the U.S. after Trump threatened to levy 25% tariffs on Canada, starting Feb. 1.
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said this week that Ottawa ‘will continue to work on preventing tariffs’ but said that officials are also ‘working on retaliation.’