With Brent crude trading in the $65–$70 corridor and a 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) global surplus pressuring prices, Igor Isaev, Doctor of Technical Sciences and Head of Analytics at Mind Money, sees no near-term catalysts for a breakout higher.
In an exclusive interview with Invezz, Isaev discusses persistent oversupply, Venezuela’s infrastructure challenges, Iran’s coordinated cuts, OPEC+ dilemmas, and India’s shifting import dynamics amid rupee strength and diversification efforts.
Isaev believes that Venezuela’s oil production could reach 1.4 million bpd within a year, but needs additional capital expenditure to grow every year.
Regarding India, Isaev noted that while the country might do so, reselling oil to Europe is now considerably more complex. Consequently, the growth in demand is not as significant as it was previously.
At the time of writing, the Brent crude oil was trading at $66.46 per barrel, up 0.2%, while the West Texas Intermediate oil was 0.4% higher at $62.41 per barrel.
Below are edited excerpts from the interview:
Macro outlook
Invezz: With Brent averaging $60–65 amid a 2.3 million bpd surplus, what’s your outlook for Q1 2026 prices?
Igor Isaev: My projections have not changed, and I still believe that in the first quarter of 2026, Brent prices will most likely remain in the corridor of $55–65 per barrel. At the moment, there are no strong factors that can support a price increase.
Moreover, demand for oil as a fuel will slowly decline.
The energy transition and the growth of electric vehicles are all putting pressure on long-term demand.
Petrochemicals are still a stable area for oil consumption, but they probably will not fully compensate for lower fuel demand.
At the same time, oil companies are cutting their expenditures. Normally, that would mean reserve growth slows down, because if a company produces, say, 100 million tons of oil, it needs to replace roughly the same amount on its balance sheet.
Previously, to do so, they set planned reserves for 10 years ahead — now it’s for 15–20, so that the stock does not collapse.
Venezuela and Iran
Invezz: Venezuela’s output hit 900,000 bpd under US control—when do you see it reaching 1.4 million bpd?
Igor Isaev: The target of 1.4 million bpd looks realistic, and I would say it can be reached within about a year, because it is just a return to the indicators of the beginning of 2018.
The main issue that Venezuela has for now is not the oil itself or the unexplored deposits, but the outdated infrastructure that can take years to restore.
It is worth remembering that in the 1990s, the country consistently produced 3.5 million bpd.
The gap between the current 900,000 and the historical peak is exactly the result of decades of underinvestment.
However, such a renovation can be very costly and take tens of billions of dollars to just begin the process, pouring in about $180–190 billion over the next 15 years.
So what’s happening now is mostly the recovery of existing production.
Many assets are already known but require repairs and operational improvements.
If access to services and financing continues to improve, production can grow relatively quickly, up to 1.5 million barrels per year.
Invezz: Iran’s protests haven’t cut its 3.3 million bpd—could escalating US sanctions change that in 2026?
Igor Isaev: So far, we cannot fully understand the real economic drivers behind this cut from Iran.
But it is very likely that there are broader market agreements in play here.
It’s very probable that Iran has some kind of understanding with its neighbours — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — because they seem to all move together.
I would not call it a proper tandem, though; it’s more like a community, and the US is part of that picture, too.
Right now, the logic is simple: there is too much oil in the market: in 2026, the total oil supply is 4.09m bpd higher than total demand.
That’s why this cut only plays in favour of oil prices, making sure they don’t collapse for the main producers.
If sanctions against Iran are strengthened, the impact may not necessarily lead to any further drops in Iranian production.
Historically, we have seen that the country is used to working under pressure.
In the end, even if the cut persists, there would be a readjustment in volumes or oil trading routes to keep the prices and balance.
Geopolitics, green energy, and long-term shift
Invezz: US President Donald Trump’s Greenland annex threats: how might this affect Arctic oil exploration and market balances?
Igor Isaev: Trump’s claims might affect oil exploration in the Arctic, but to be honest, the impact in practice will be limited — any production or exploration there is extremely expensive and difficult.
The overall context is more interesting here. In October 2025, the American regulators approved a program to launch thermonuclear fusion into a commercial network by mid-2030.
If in just a few years the country might probably have almost endless clean energy, why even drill Greenland’s ice for Arctic oil?
Greenland’s real value is the strategic reserve of rare earths for the $12 billion Project Vault project, and the security of the missile defence system, for which the United States is allocating $175 billion over the next three years.
Under such conditions, oil in the Arctic remains an “expensive noise,” while real money goes into critical minerals and technologies of the future. This way, the US is forming a strategic reserve of minerals to protect against China.
The US is very focused on the idea of its sovereignty in supplies, and the recent Critical Metals’ $120 million loan for the Tanbreez project in Greenland is clear evidence of this.
So the reason is not Greenland itself, it’s more of rare earth metals that are fueling a race for resources.
OPEC+ strategy vs non-OPEC competition
Invezz: Non-OPEC growth is outpacing demand—what strategies could OPEC+ deploy to curb inventory builds?
Igor Isaev: This is a two-sided issue. The problem is when OPEC+ cuts production to prevent prices from falling, creating a so-called “price umbrella,” countries outside the alliance (the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada) use it to increase their production and capture the market.
Canada and the United States become a single complex against OPEC.
They work like a single factory — Canadian oil goes to American refineries, and the end products are returned back. In the end, the energy market becomes oversupplied anyway:
OPEC+ is losing revenue and market share, and global oil reserves are still growing.
That’s why cutting quotas alone has not proved to be effective; there needs to be a more flexible approach and monitoring in this long battle for balance.
Invezz: With gold at $4,900 as a hedge, is crude seeing similar safe-haven buying amid macro uncertainty?
Igor Isaev: That’s true, gold is perceived as a safe-haven asset, which is why its price is in an upward position now. And to be short, for crude, that is not the case.
Gold is a global protective asset by definition: for states, central banks, pension funds and large institutions, secured by regulations and overall human consensus that it is a precious metal.
It is growing against the increase in the money supply and currency depreciation. It is a classic hedge.
Oil and gas are also global assets, but they have an inherent high volatility, and for the last seven years, they have been in a steady downward trend, unlike gold.
Until the trend reverses, oil will not become the same type of safe haven.
Invezz: TotalEnergies predicts EU policy softening—do you agree it’ll ease pressure on SAF adoption?
Igor Isaev: I don’t think the pressure will decrease much; on the contrary, the EU countries are aiming at having a 70% share of green jet fuels by 2050.
The current ease is temporary due to a shortage of SAF production facilities that covers less than 0.5%.
Because of this decline, aviation will continue to rely on traditional kerosene for longer, supporting oil demand.
But it will not be a global trend. Overall, if we look at the volume of aviation fuel globally, it is not produced in large amounts and is in a downtrend.
However, this restructuring of the green energy market has led to a delay, during which everyone continues to use fossil fuels as a temporary option until the transition is finished.
We don’t know how long the delay will last — it might be about 5 years — but eventually the world will get there. That said, the green agenda is inevitable. Every year, the energy intensity coming from population, vehicles, and data centers grows very rapidly.
For example, the energy consumption by data centres will exceed 1,000 TWh in 2026. AI also requires enormous capacities, so if we do not switch to “green” rails, our footprint will grow exponentially, endangering the planet.
As a result, carbon neutrality becomes non-negotiable in the long run.
Wildcard
Invezz: Overall, what’s the biggest wildcard for crude prices in 2026: supply disruptions or demand slowdowns?
Igor Isaev: The main unpredictable factor is supply and logistical disruptions.
They are much more serious and painful in influence, although shorter-lived than demand or oversupply issues.
These could be logistical interruptions, such as those coming from Iran, or, much worse for the oil market, a renewed Houthi attack in the Red Sea.
They could force rerouting of shipments, as we have seen before. And this is a very big risk.
For example, if there is a decrease in demand, it is a slow process that is less disruptive for the market than attacks or rerouting.
So far, even China, which has been seriously shaken by an oversupply of production capacity, has managed the situation relatively well.
India’s evolving import strategy
Invezz: How is India’s crude import bill trending in early 2026, given lower Brent and rupee movements?
Igor Isaev: For now, the Indian consumption is smaller than that of some other big countries.
But India keeps developing, and, after some time, the demand will increase.
At the same time, the rupee is strengthening, which helps compensate for the cost of the growing consumption.
India will also continue to buy oil for resale, but to a lesser extent. Previously, the country was basically the entry point for all kinds of oil flows, processing it and selling the end products — sometimes to Europe.
However, now, with restrictions on Russian oil exports to Europe, buying crude is becoming less profitable.
That’s why India reduced oil imports from Russia by 28%, from 1.8 million to 1.3 million barrels per day, due to new sources of supply.
Now India buys oil from 41 countries instead of 27. Of course, India can still buy more oil for domestic use, refine it into fuel or petrochemicals, and sell it locally — it still processes about 5 million b/d.
But using it to supply Europe is now much more complicated, so that demand is not growing as sharply as before.
Invezz: With India’s strategic petroleum reserves expanding and talks of deeper diversification, how exposed is the country still to Middle East disruptions?
Igor Isaev: India does not produce much oil domestically, so like China, it is very vulnerable to disruptions and relies heavily on imports.
Despite any strategic steps that the country plans to take, it still depends on oil from multiple sources, mostly from Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia.
Although India does not consume as much as other economies, it is still very sensitive to any rerouting.
If certain flows are restricted, it can often pick up the rest of the sales in other countries.
Sometimes China does too. But most likely, even if something happens, Saudi Arabia will not leave India, and will continue to supply oil there.
It is interesting that the country understands its vulnerability and takes measures to lessen this dependence — India is now switching to the commercial SPR model.
In Padura, new 2.5 million-ton tanks are being built, involving private investment, where part of the oil belongs to the state and part to traders for operational trading.
Thanks to this project, India’s oil flexibility grows, so now the total reserve capacity in 2026 is moving towards 9–12 million tons.
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